MovieRetriever.com is going on record. Write it down. Impress your friends. These WILL be the nominees when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences goes through their annual routine on Thursday morning at 5:30am PST. Yes, we're confident. You almost have to be in a year as weird as this one. Or, at least, Hollywood is that predictable. These aren't necessarily our picks for best of the year, but, given eighty previous years of ceremonies, these are pretty informed guesses. So, without further ado...
- Brian Tallerico
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BEST PICTURE
Based on precursors and buzz, there are two definite locks, the two clear front-runners to win the big prize - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire. Both, based on these predictions, are going to be two of the three films with double-digit Oscar nominations on their newspaper ads this weekend. The other one? The Dark Knight. And the love for that film will push it into this category easily. The people who still think TDK won’t get in because it’s too mainstream don’t know their Oscar history. When a movie is this big, there’s no denying it. Star Wars, E.T., Jaws, Titanic, The Exorcist – all massive, mainstream hits, all Best Picture nominees.
The other two slots are little more open for debate. Milk didn't get a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, but has seen precursor love from nearly everyone else. It's a safe bet, although I won't be stunned if it gets snubbed. Disappointed but not stunned. It just doesn't feel like the love for Milk is there like it was even a few weeks ago. The fact that Milk has made less to date ($20 million) than Paul Blart: Mall Cop did in its first two days adds to the sense that people aren't talking about this excellent film as much as they should. The final slot? It's between four films - Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, and WALL-E. My heart says WALL-E. My head says that with every important precursor group - DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG - showing Ron Howard's purely so-so film serious love, it's getting in. Out of any of the majors in this feature, I'll be happiest if this prediction is wrong but I just don’t see it.
The Nominees Will Be:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
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BEST DIRECTOR
With the lack of buzz surrounding Milk lately and the general apathy I think most feel about Frost/Nixon, one of their directors is not getting in. Before we get to that, you can lock in David Fincher, Danny Boyle, and Christopher Nolan for their first Best Director nods each in easy predictions. Isn't that amazing? Relatively young and maverick directors like Fincher, Boyle, and Nolan will all have the words “Oscar-nominated” next to their names in future previews. The directors of Fight Club, Trainspotting, and Memento will all be able to put Oscar nominee next to their name. It feels a little like a changing of the guard and recognition of some talented filmmakers that a generation has grown up adoring. So, assuming that the battle for the four and five slots in Best Picture makes it unlikely that we will have a 5/5 match for director, who gets snubbed? Van Sant or Howard? I'm picking the latter and, with Mike Leigh and Andrew Stanton being names I wouldn't be surprised to hear, I'm going with a man whose film is growing in admiration every single day - Darren Aronofsky. The director Requiem For a Dream will be an Oscar nominee too. Amazing.
The Nominees Will Be:
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
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BEST ACTOR
This is another case, like Best Picture, where three of the slots are locked in, done, over - Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon, Sean Penn for Milk, and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler. The other two are much tougher. Actors often ride a wave of support for their film, and I think that will carry Brad Pitt in for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, even if I'd much rather see a shocker like Josh Brolin for W. or Benicio Del Toro for Che. Neither has a chance but a critic can dream. Finally, I worry that Clint Eastwood will get in for his overrated work in Gran Torino and push out the far superior performance of Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. I love Clint but this is not nomination-worthy work. History will be MUCH kinder to The Visitor than Gran Torino. Once again, my heart wants to say Jenkins, but my head says, especially with the massive box office success, that Eastwood barely slides in. This would be a great one for them to release the votes. I think Jenkins misses that fifth spot by a handful of ballots. I hope I’m wrong.
The Nominees Will Be:
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
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BEST ACTRESS
Finally we have a category where four of the nominees are of the "lock" variety. If Anne Hathaway, Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, or Kate Winslet don't hear their name on Thursday morning in this category then that tapping sound you hear is the world of journalism frantically writing about their omission being the most surprising snub of the day. The fifth spot is trickier. Kristin Scott-Thomas once had a lot of heat for I've Loved You So Long. After Toronto, there were suggestions she might even win. Precursors haven't been kind to her and I think she misses out. Two other critical darlings - Melissa Leo for Frozen River and Michelle Williams for Wendy and Lucy - will suffer the same fate. All three of these talented women will see something that happens more often than you might think – the Academy making up for past omissions. Angelina Jolie should have been nominated last year for A Mighty Heart. She will be this year for Changeling.
The Nominees Will Be:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another category with four locks and one tricky spot, although I think this may be the category of the day that I feel the most confident about telling you to bet the farm on. You can certainly do so with Heath Ledger getting a nod for The Dark Knight. In fact, Ledger for Supporting Actor, Wall-E for Animated Film, and Waltz With Bashir for Foreign Language Film are three WINS that you can pretty safely bet your paycheck on now. The other three locks for nominees are Josh Brolin for Milk, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, and Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt, although I'd be very happy if the Academy recognized that Hoffman's work in that film is lead and don't nominate him out of principle. Other more deserving and possible nominees? Ralph Fiennes for any of his work in 2008 (In Bruges, The Duchess, The Reader), Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road, Bill Irwin for Rachel Getting Married, or James Franco for Pineapple Express or Milk. Any of them could be that one "shocker" nominee of the day that no one's predicting. (Keeping my fingers crossed for Franco or Marsan.) But I think the fifth nominee will be another "wave-rider" like Pitt for Best Actor, and Dev Patel will sneak in on the tsunami of support for his little movie that could.
The Nominees Will Be:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Winslet is undeniably a lead in The Reader, but that's not going to stop the Academy from nominating and probably awarding arguably the best actress of her generation in this category instead. If you're keeping track at home, this nod will be Winslet's SEVENTH (and without a win, making her taking home this trophy all the more likely). She's only 33. At her age, even Meryl Streep only had four and, that year, would win her second for Sophie's Choice, the last time she went home with Oscar gold. (Meryl will land her unbelievable fifteenth for Doubt. Anyone else think Kate will match that total during her career? I do.) They'll probably give it to Kate, but they need to nominate four others. Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona is the only guarantee. She has been since the day the movie came out. The other three will be a combination of Amy Adams and Viola Davis in Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married, Taraji P. Henson in Button, and Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler. I think Aronofsky's film is going to have a big day and the precursor love for Doubt makes me think both of those ladies are getting in, leaving poor Rosemarie and Taraji waiting till next year.
The Nominees Will Be:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is the most challenging category of the day. If you look at the WGA nominees, usually a safe bet, then that means that Burn After Reading is getting a nod here. I don't see that happening. Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and The Wrestler will match up with WGA, but I see surprises in the other two. I am very sadly predicting a Visitor shut-out (and hoping I'm wrong). That leaves two spots open. They love to nominate Pixar here – The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Finding Nemo, and Toy Story all landed one – and Wall-E isn’t going to break that pattern. The fifth one is a nightmare to predict. Am I wrong about The Visitor or is it Rachel Getting Married, In Bruges, Happy-Go-Lucky, or maybe even Synecdoche, New York? Throw a dart at a board. For now, I'm going with Rachel. Ask me again tomorrow.
The Nominees Will Be:
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WALL-E
The Wrestler
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This one's easier. The WGA chose the Nolan's excellent work on Dark Knight but the Academy has a history of snubbing films that they see as technical marvels from the screenplay category (Titanic didn’t get one). I think TDK is getting snubbed here. I predict a little of the love for The Reader sneaking them in and the other ones going straight match with the WGA. If Let the Right One In, somehow, deservedly, pushes one of these aside, the entire city of Chicago will hear my childish squeal of glee.
The Nominees Will Be:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
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Those are the high-profile ones. Here are my picks for the other categories (excusing the short-subject ones where everyone just guesses anyway), just in case you want an early start on planning your Oscar pool.
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BEST ANIMATED:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
The Betrayal
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
3 Monkeys
The Class
Everlasting Moments
Revanche
Waltz With Bashir
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
BEST MAKEUP:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York
BEST SCORE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
BEST SONG:
Bolt
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler
BEST SOUND MIXING:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
BEST SOUND EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
WALL-E
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TOTALS FOR MAJOR NOMINEES
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 12 nominations
The Dark Knight - 11
Slumdog Millionaire - 11
Milk - 7
WALL-E - 6
Doubt - 5
The Wrestler - 5
Frost/Nixon - 4
The Reader - 4
Changeling - 3
Defiance - 3
Iron Man – 3
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What do you think? Did we miss some obvious choices? Disagree with our picks? Are you looking forward to coming back here Thursday afternoon and mocking us back to the Stone Age for not being able to anticipate Shia’s best supporting actor nod for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull?
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